What needs to happen in order to get Alex Gordon back?

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Here’s the rub when it comes to Alex Gordon coming back to KC.

The Royals aren’t going to outbid the wealthiest teams, and they’re not going to shell out a crazy huge contract for pretty much anyone but Gordon. There’s a group of five outfielders generally agreed upon to be the top tier of free agents. They are…

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Justin Upton
  3. Yoenis Cespedes
  4. Alex Gordon
  5. Dexter Fowler

The top two are definitely the upper echelon. Gordon and Cespedes are interchangeable. Fowler is a close 5th.

Another wrinkle in the mix: the Colorado Rockies are shopping Carlos Gonzalez, who would be in that Gordon/Cespedes range, maybe just below. So we’re really looking at 6 top tier players available. But how many teams are in the market for a top OF guy? In no particular order…

  1. Royals
  2. Giants
  3. Angels
  4. Cardinals
  5. Orioles
  6. Cubs

So there you have it. Six teams. Six players. The question is who goes where? What sequence of events needs to take place for the Royals to get Gordon back?

And it’s not like this is just a matching game. There are other players involved too – notably Chris Davis and Johnny Cueto – who can drastically change the landscape of all this. But we’ll get to that. Let’s start at the top with Jason Heyward.

The Cubs and Cardinals are bidding each other up on Heyward. To me, it’s been a foregone conclusion that Heyward will end up in St. Louis after the Cardinals missed out on David Price. If they were willing to pay out a giant contact to Price, then they have the money available to sign Heyward. And with Matt Holliday only having one year left on his contract, it seems to make a lot of sense for them moving forward.

But the Cubs are being jerks and driving up the price for their division rival. Heyward would look awesome in a Cubbies uniform, and he’s the type of player who deserves a giant contract, and the Cubs are so young its unlikely they’ll regret adding a player like him. Ultimately, I don’t think he’ll go to Chicago though.

If he does go to Chicago, that’s bad news for the Royals. The Cardinals’ backup option is almost undoubtedly Alex Gordon, who has been referred to as the “poor man’s Jason Heyward” – left handed hitter, best defensive corner outfielder, all around good player. Only difference is Alex’s age.

So that’s first thing that needs to happen: St. Louis must get Jason Heyward.

If the Cardinals get Heyward, I’d be surprised if Chicago went the Alex Gordon route. I’d expect them to settle on re-signing Dexter Fowler instead, who is younger and a switch hitter. Cubs manager, Joe Maddon, loves switch hitters and all things flexibility – i.e. why Ben Zobrist is now a Cub. They don’t need a lefty bat as badly as St. Louis does, and Fowler would be returning to a club he already knows.

So that’s the second thing that needs to happen: Chicago needs to settle on Fowler instead of Gordon.

I’d also like to note: if Chicago does in fact go the Gordon route, I’d really like it if Dexter Fowler fell to KC. Just saying. We’ll talk about that later.

The Orioles are an interesting case right now because they’re currently negotiating with first baseman Chris Davis for a mega deal re-signing. Davis has reportedly wanted a Heyward-like contract upwards of 9-10 years and $200MM. That’s not going to happen. Baltimore has reportedly offered $168MM, but has since taken that offer off the table.

If the Orioles add Davis, then they won’t have the money to add a top tier outfielder. Which, in order for the Royals to be able to grab Gordon, they need all the other bidders to have found another option. If the Orioles remove themselves from the outfielder race, then it makes it more likely KC will get Gordon back. Or, if they can’t sign him, the Angels, Giants, Cubs or Cardinals need to. This is all fluid. Somehow the other 5 teams need to find their guys and Gordon needs to be left without a dance partner.

Another wrinkle might be Johnny Cueto’s contract. He’s probably going to end up with something in the $130-140MM range. If he signs with one of these teams, then their payroll will skyrocket and they’re unlikely to add an expensive outfielder. It’s also possible that the Cardinals could add both Davis AND Cueto, taking them out of the Gordon market that way too. That probably doesn’t have to happen, but it might. Again, fluid.

If the Orioles don’t sign Davis, they’re most likely to go after Upton, Gordon or Cespedes. They’ve been most linked to Upton, but it would seem they need a left-handed bat. Let’s just hope they sign Davis and we can be done with it.

So that’s the third thing that needs to happen: Baltimore (or another team in the OF market) needs to sign Chris Davis.

So, assuming Heyward and Fowler and Davis go to St. Louis, Chicago and Baltimore, respectively, that leaves the Angels, Giants and Royals bidding for Gordon, Upton and Cespedes, potentially trading for Gonzalez.

This is the situation KC needs: more players than suiters. If they can wait it out until this moment, they have a legitimate shot at brining Gordon back. It’s a crapshoot from there, but the market would already be significantly lower with a higher supply. Kansas City would at least be able to make a competitive offer and Gordon could consider a hometown discount.

So that’s the final thing: the Angels and Giants need to want Upton or Cespedes or Gonzalez as much or more than they want Gordon.

So here’s the rub:

  1. Heyward to St. Louis.
  2. Fowler to Chicago.
  3. Davis to Baltimore.
  4. Two of Upton/Cespedes/Gonzalez to Anaheim/San Francisco.
  5. Royals bid to Gordon looks good enough to come home.

And throw in the fact that there can be no other #MysteryTeam who emerges out of nowhere and swipes one of these guys.

What are the odds of all this? Like…20% maybe? 15%? Yeah, not good. Fingers crossed.

-apc.

Image accessed here.

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